An underwater volcano off Oregon didn’t erupt in 2025 after all. Why not?

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Signs now point toward a 2026 eruption of the volcano on the Axial seamount A high-definition camera keeps watch on a hydrothermal vent called Mushroom in the caldera of Axial seamount, just off the coast of Oregon, under about 1,500 meters of water. The camera is just one of many instruments monitoring the volcano in hopes of finding patterns that might presage an eruption. NEW ORLEANS — One year ago, scientists made a surprisingly concrete prediction: Before 2025 was out, they said, Axial volcano — a submerged seamount near Oregon in the Northern Pacific Ocean — would erupt. That hasn’t happened. But it still might — in 2026. Scientists haven’t yet come up with a reliable way to forecast a volcanic eruption, particularly not months or years in advance. Last year, researchers hoped they’d identified the right pattern of data to anticipate Axial’s eruption. Now, they’re turning back to the data to hunt for more clues. A combined analysis of seismic and seafloor inflation data around Axial seamount could offer a way to f
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