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Most coastal risk assessments have underestimated current sea levels, meaning tens of millions of people face losing their homes to rising waters earlier than expected Almost all research on the impacts of future sea-level rise has assumed today’s sea levels are lower than they actually are due to a “methodological blind spot”. That means flooding and erosion will happen sooner than expected. Katharina Seeger and Philip Minderhoud, both at Wageningen University in the Netherlands, analysed 385 peer-reviewed studies on coastal vulnerability and found that 90 per cent failed to consider the effects of ocean currents, tides, temperature, salinity and winds on sea level. As a result, they underestimated the water level at the coast by an average of 24 to 27 centimetres. Once corrected, the number of people whose homes will be underwater by 2100 could increase by up to 68 per cent
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